S&P Global Ratings has published its 2026 global sovereign borrowing report, which summarizes a series of regional sovereign borrowing and debt reports for developed EMEA, emerging EMEA, Africa, Asia-Pacific, and the Americas.

“We estimate sovereigns’ long-term borrowing will reach $14.1 trillion in 2026, a 5% increase on 2025 and double that of 2019,” said S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Ludwig Heinz.

“The U.S. will account for almost 40% of global long-term issuance, raising its 2026 borrowing by $500 billion, to $5.3 trillion, while China remains the second-largest sovereign issuer with the equivalent of $2.5 trillion.”

S&P said that in Europe, Germany’s borrowing is set to rise substantially after its prolonged fiscal restraint.

It said that in emerging markets, gross issuance will remain broadly flat amid favorable funding conditions. Funding costs could further increase for some, reflecting fiscal pressures particularly in some developed markets.

In a separate report, S&P Global Ratings projected that net borrowing by developed European sovereigns will remain near 3% of GDP on average for 2026, largely to finance deficits, although budgetary positions vary widely.

In the report, entitled “Sovereign Debt 2026: Developed European Sovereigns‘ Net Borrowing Holds Steady At Near 3% Of GDP,” S&P Global Ratings noted that while some, such as Ireland and Switzerland, are in a surplus position, France’s net borrowing will be near 5.3% of GDP.

“We also forecast developed European sovereigns’ gross borrowing at 11.7% of GDP in 2026, below the peaks during the pandemic but over 1 percentage point (ppt) of GDP higher than the 10-year average,” said S&P.

“Sovereign debt levels remain on average 10 ppts of GDP above 2019 levels.

“The three largest euro area borrowers, France, Germany, and Italy, now account for 52% of all developed European debt, up from 48% in 2017. This follows Germany’s embrace of fiscal stimulus and steadily rising debt in the euro area’s second-largest economy, France.

“In that time, the U.K.’s projected share of total commercial (both long- and short-term) European debt fell to 18% versus 23%, although the decline is almost exclusively due to the 10.4% depreciation of the pound sterling versus the euro over the past decade.

“As a consequence of fiscal tightening, we expect a considerable reduction in the U.K.’s net borrowing in 2026, to 4.5% of GDP (£142 billion) versus 5.6% (£171 billion) in 2025.”